04 May 2011

In response to people freaking out about 2012

This is my geo schol essay from a few weeks ago, with the endnotes/references taken out. thanks to tian for helping me with the introduction. got a 7/8 for this one :)

like seriously you superstitious people... calm the fuck down.


Critically evaluate the following quote:
“The impact of natural disasters has risen dramatically over the past 20 years.”
Over the past 20 years, the economic, physical and psychological impact of natural disasters has risen dramatically mainly due to the two largest differences between the world now and the world 20 years ago – our population is much greater and our technology far more advanced. Population growth and urbanisation consequently lead to pressure to settle on marginal land and develop more built environments that could be potentially damaged, whereas the development of technology and industry makes us both more at risk and more aware of natural disasters when they occur. Superstitions also to some extent increase the psychological impact of natural disasters on humans more than they did 20 years ago (See fig1)

Fig 1:



The effect of population growth on the growing impact of disasters is evident if the definition of a ‘natural disaster’ is analysed – a disaster is only devastating if it affects humans. Since there are more humans on Earth compared to 20 years ago (in 1990 the world population was around 5.2 billion – in 2010 it was 6.8 billion ), when a natural disaster strikes it is likely to cause more deaths than 20 years ago simply due to the fact that there are more people around. Furthermore, due to the increase in population, humans have had the need to inhabit areas that are perhaps not ideal for living, either due to lack of other spaces or for resources. In the past, the most devastating floods have been on the banks of Yellow River in China (it is speculated that up to 4 million people may have died due to a Yellow River flood in 1931 ), where a lot of people lived for the richness of the soil. In the last 20 years, as economic growth has become a priority of many countries, populations have inclined towards trade routes, especially ports and coasts. San Francisco is such an area as despite the high frequency of earthquakes (thousands each year ); many people live there as it is a primary port for export and import of resources. The impact of natural disasters such as inundations and tsunamis has therefore risen due to the increase in population in these areas that make humans more susceptible to them.

Humans have also relocated themselves into more concentrated city populations (in 1975 about 40% of the world’s population lived in large cities, in 2005 it was 60% ) where economic and industrial growth has created a more built environment that could potentially be damaged. The impact of natural disasters on the economy has thus risen dramatically as there is a need to repair structures such as buildings or bridges that have been damaged as quickly as possible, mainly due to the large population in cities who require residence and transport. Additionally, most people die not directly from the earthquakes themselves but from their effects on the surrounding environment. The co-existence of densely packed structures and the concentrated population in large cities mean that when a natural disaster strikes, it becomes many times more dangerous due to the number of unstable structures.

It is not only development in industry that has increased the impact of natural disasters; major development of technology can also play a big part in increasing the consequent damage of disasters. For instance, the 2011 Japanese tsunami became much more devastating and dangerous due to the presence of nuclear technology ; the threat of radioactive contamination would not have existed had an earthquake occurred in the past.

The nature of communication in the modern world is also much more technologically advanced than in the past. When there is a natural disaster, the news is able to reach many more people than before, in a fraction of the time it used to -- the mental and emotional impact caused by natural disasters has certainly risen dramatically. Over time, most of the Earth’s geographical area has also been mapped out due to the rising population. Where an earthquake could occur without anybody’s knowledge before, it is almost certain now that it will be reported due to people inhabiting most of the world’s land area. Humans have also developed more sensitive seismographic tools and knowledge of the movement of tectonic plates that they did not possess in the past and are far more able to cope with even small scale events. Humans are now even able to predict the likelihood of a natural disaster occurring in the near future (Many disaster warning systems was only implemented in the 1990s ). This means that the number of reported and recorded natural disasters has definitively increased from 20 years ago (see fig. 2, note significant increase in reports of natural disasters in 1990s, direct result of implemented warning systems). Obviously, people can only be affected by disasters that they have knowledge of, thus due to this increase in knowledge of the occurrences of natural disasters, the impact of such natural disasters also must increase.

Fig. 2 :


Natural disasters no longer simply affect those involved as victims, but the global population as a whole. When a natural disaster occurs in another part of the world, it is now expected that more able countries offer their aid – for instance, in response to Hurricane Katrina, nearly 100 other countries donated money, food or medical aid. The media plays a significant role in sensationalising natural disasters, the effect being that many more people not only know about a disaster when it occurs but also have access to images and footage taken of the event. Internet media and discussion boards also fuel this sensationalism as superstitions of the end of the Mayan calendar “2012” apocalypse theory (first widely publicised in 2006 ) arise whenever there is a major natural disaster in the world. The psychological impacts of this are obvious – the ‘official’ site for the 2012 apocalypse has almost 200 000 hits and there was even feature film produced in 2009 . 20 years ago, there was no such superstition, nor did the internet exist to provide a ground for people to discuss their thoughts and fears, so in this regard today natural disasters have far more psychological impact on humans than before.

Evidently, the changes the world has undergone in the last 20 years have contributed to the increased impact of natural disasters on our global population. Due to rising population and urbanisation, there are now a lot more structures and people that can be affected by natural disasters. Furthermore, technological advances have made communication more efficient and the news much more accessible, thus the presence of natural disasters now not only affects the victims but the global population as well. The impact of natural disasters, whether physically, economically or even psychologically on the population of the world has undeniably risen, even if it is questionable whether their frequency or potency has changed or not.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It is not 2012. It is proven by the Bible that it is MAY 21, 2011!

Only 4 days more.

familyradio.com

May 21, 2011 Judgement day, a huge earthquake will happen onthat day, the day of Christ's return.

Pray for mercy~